Fire risk ramps up in Florida following warm, dry winter
One of the warmest, driest winters on record set a combustible stage for untold Florida infernos to light up the landscape this spring.
El Niño’s heavy rains won’t likely come to the rescue until late summer, early fall.
But as fire season peaks this month — Florida’s driest time of the year — recent statewide fires portend that the next four to six weeks could deliver the worst blazes Florida has seen in years, climatologists say. At least 126,000 acres have been charred so far this year, and the state already has surpassed the five-year average of acreage burned for an entire year.
With additional fires sparking up in Texas, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Georgia, Alabama, Arizona and California, by April 7 the acreage burned nationally already had exceed 2.2 million acres, four times the 10-year average, according to the National Interagency Fire Center, a support center made up of eight federal agencies and organizations tasked with combating wildfires.
Climate experts expect fire risk to worsen in coming weeks, but doubt it will get as bad as 1998, when a global climate pattern bluntly shifted, delaying seasonal rains, with devastating consequences for the Sunshine State.
“It’s fairly likely we’re going to get drier before there is relief from this,” said state climatologist David Zierden, at FSU’s Florida Climate Center.
On Tuesday, Governor Rick Scott announced a state of emergency because of the active wildfire season. The declaration makes it easier for local, regional and state agencies to join forces, Scott said, and allows the state to seek federal resources.
A day later, Scott directed the Florida National Guard to put a UH-60 Blackhawk helicopter on standby for potential firefighting missions in Tampa. The aircraft would support the Florida Forest Service and collect and dispense large quantities of water onto fires without having to land.
Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam described this year as the most active fire season since 2011. As of Thursday, 97 active fires burned statewide, with 28 active wildfires larger than 100 acres.
One fire in the state — the so called Cowbell fire — scorched 17,000 acres of brush this week within the Big Cypress National Preserve, about one mile north of the Alligator Alley stretch of Interstate-75. Another, the Parliament fire in Collier County, has burned more than 26,000 acres, but is now 95 percent contained.
New wildfires ignited Friday on two St. Johns River Water Management District properties: A 35-acre blaze on Seminole Ranch Conservation Area at the convergence of Brevard, Orange, Volusia and Seminole counties, and a 3.5-acre fire at the Ocklawaha Prairie Restoration Area in Marion County, near County Road 464.
Campfires are prohibited on district properties while burn bans remain in effect for six counties: Brevard, Nassau, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola and Seminole.
Contained fires in central and north Brevard lofted enough smoke the last few mornings to force the Florida Highway Patrol to close major thoroughfares, including portions of state roads 528 and 50 for several hours.
Fires in Orange County prompted the Florida Department of Health to warn the public about the health effects of smoke, which can cause scratchy throats, coughing, headaches or irritate eyes and nose. Smoke also can worsen asthma and other chronic lung or heart conditions. Health officials recommend people with those conditions stay inside, close doors and windows, and run the air conditioning with recirculated air.
South Florida is the worst
South Florida is seeing the worst fire threat in the state. The increased risk prompted the South Florida Water Management District this week to issue a temporary ban on all open fires and campfires on District lands.
El Niño, a pattern of warmer-than-usual water in the Pacific Ocean, near the equator, raises the odds of floods, droughts, cyclones, tornadoes and other extreme global weather. The upside: It also can douse summertime fire risk in Florida and create winds that shear the tops of tropical cyclones apart before they can strengthen to hurricanes.
But any El Niño relief this fire season might arrive too late. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its monthly El Niño forecast Thursday, projecting a greater than 50 percent chance of El Niño conditions won’t develop until August or later.
La Niña, the opposite cycle in the Pacific, causes drier than usual conditions in Florida and did so this past winter.
In 2008, La Niña spelled catastrophic consequences in what came to be called the Mother’s Day infernos, which destroyed 36 Palm Bay homes, damaged 250 others and scorched an estimated 13,500 acres in the city. Fires also burned several hundred acres in Cocoa.
But climate experts say this year’s El Niño/La Niña prospects don’t look as extreme as 2008 or 1998 — the worst fire year in recent memory.
In ’98, an abrupt shift from a strong El Niño to La Niña delayed Florida’s rainy season, resulting in wide-spread dry brush. El Niño had fueled an unusually wet, mild winter that enabled excess growth of underbrush. Then La Niña quickly followed, causing severe drought in May and June, which parched the thick underbrush.
Fires started north of Brevard County in May, then inside the county when frequent lightning strikes kicked in. More than 30 homes and about 70,000 acres burned countywide.
The landscape looks less dry this year. As of Friday, Melbourne had received about 5.5 inches of rain this year, 3.6 inches below the long-term average.
But as May approaches, more frequent lightning strikes that hit the ground tend to spark lasting fires, because the strikes aren’t followed by enough rain to dampen the threat.
“We’ve just been exceptionally dry because we didn’t get any rain in January and February,” said Bryan Williams, a meteorologist with the Florida Forest Service. “When that fuel moisture goes down and the humidity is down and the wind’s blowing that’s usually a melting pot for extreme fire conditions.”
This week, a key measure of fire risk, the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, crept up toward the danger zone in Brevard.
The index measures moisture in the first eight inches of soil and can swing hundreds of points within the same day. It calculates dryness on a scale from zero to 800, with 800 being the driest, or worst wildfire threat. A reading of 600 is a severe threat.
The index measured a mean of 534 on Thursday for Brevard County and as high as 666 in at least one location. Areas just south of Melbourne were among the driest.
The Keetch-Byram showed a wide range of fire risk late this week in Florida, depending on the Florida Forest Service districts. The highest risk districts were as follows:
• Caloosahatchee district: mean of 619, ranging from 464 to 707;
• Myakka River district: mean of 591, ranging from 455 to 673;
• Okeechobee district: mean of 586, ranging from 315 to 689;
• Everglades district: mean of 559, ranging from 348 to 665;
• Orlando district (includes Brevard): mean of 553, ranging from 341 to 677.
The district that includes the state capital in Tallahassee had a low risk on the Keetch-Byram, with a mean of 118, ranging from 74 to 269.
Florida Forest Service also maintains a Wildfire Danger Index, which estimates potential for a fire to start and to require suppression action on any given day. It uses the forecast, relative humidity and takes into account what’s happened in similar conditions. On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the worst, Brevard County was expected to be a 3 Friday, or a “high” fire risk.
The four counties that ranked highest, or a “very high” risk on the Wildfire Danger Index Friday, were Lee, Manatee, Seminole and Pinellas, which all scored a 4 on the 1 to 5 scale, with 5 being the worst.
To firefighters, this season’s nothing out of the ordinary — yet.
“I would classify this as a normal fire season so far,” said Sean Gallagher, a spokesman for the Florida Forest Service. “It’s been four or five years since we’ve had a normal fire season, so people have kind of forgotten. We’re prepared for any eventuality.”
Contact Waymer at 321-242-3663 or jwaymer@floridatoday.com Follow him on Twitter@JWayEnviro and at facebook.com/jim.waymer
How to be safe
How to make your home safe from wildfires, visit: www.freshfromflorida.com/Divisions-Offices/Florida-Forest-Service/For-Communities/Firewise-Communities/Firewise-Landscaping