Where are all the right whales?
Maybe the right whales are all just in the wrong place at the wrong time this year.
Where spotters typically see 20 newborn endangered North Atlantic right whales, this winter only three have been born, the lowest number of newborns since only one was born in 2000.
Three dozen or more adult and baby right whales usually pass through Florida and Georgia waters during the winter calving season, which runs mid-November to mid-April. This year, only seven whales have been documented.
"Not only is it the fewest number of calves, but it's also the fewest number of individuals seen," said Phil Hamilton, a research scientist at New England Aquarium, which monitors right whales.
Scientists suspect a warmer North Atlantic, driven in part by climate change, might be disrupting the density of animal plankton that the whales need to feed, increasing the time it takes for females to bulk up for pregnancy and forcing the whales to scatter in search of food.
"A lot of people are doing a lot of head scratching," Julie Albert, who monitors right whales for the nonprofit Marine Resources Council, said of this winter's whale migration.
Feds: No drones near endangered right whales
One theory is that the whales might not be healthy enough for successful birth. Female right whales used to have calves every three or four years, biologists said. Now it's taking twice as long for them to reach a healthy weight to reproduce.
Early whalers gave them their name because they were the "right" whales to kill. They swim slowly and close to shore and float when dead, making them easy to hunt. They yielded large amounts of oil and baleen, an elastic substance once used in buggy whips and women's corsets.
The species' numbers eventually dipped to only about 50 whales, but have since recovered to about 500.
Scientists aren't sure exactly what's going on, but since 2010, seasonal distribution of right whales has shifted. They see large decreases in summertime whale numbers in Bay of Fundy and Roseway Basin and in the springtime in Great South Channel, historically vital habitats for right whales.
Now, more seem to go into Gulf of St. Lawrence, near Nova Scotia and Quebec, instead.
Biologists suspect warming waters in the whales' usual habitats might be lowering the density of animal plankton in the water that the whales need to feed.
First right whales of 2017 spotted off Brevard
"Gulf of Maine is warming faster than any other water body in the world, increasing by half-a-degree per year," Hamilton said.
The whales need a certain density of zooplankton to make it worth the energy it takes to open their mouths, Hamilton added, because an open whale mouth creates lots of drag while swimming.
"This is a strange year," said Barbara Zoodsma, a biologist with NOAA Fisheries. "They are missing in action from a lot of places ... They're kind of sprinkled around."
In January, two right whales — a mother and calf — showed up off the Space Coast. The mother whale is thought to be a 30-year-old whale that scientists have cataloged.
Each winter, right whales travel more than 1,000 miles from their feeding grounds off Canada and New England to South Carolina, Georgia and Florida's east coast. The whales give birth and nurse their young in these southern waters, making them vulnerable to collisions with vessels.
Feds: No drones near endangered right whales
To lower that risk, federal law requires vessels 65 feet and longer to slow to 10 knots or less in Seasonal Management Areas along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. That includes the calving and nursery area in the southeastern U.S.
Consensus among whale researchers is that right whales are in decline.
Given the threats from ship strikes, fishing gear and a limited gene pool, the species can't withstand much of a decline.
"We know that all the whales alive today are descended from just five or six female lines," Hamilton said.
Contact Waymer at 321-242-3663 or jwaymer@floridatoday.com Follow him on Twitter @JWayEnviro and at facebook.com/jim.waymer
Take a right whale class:
The Marine Resources Council will hold a right whale presentation on a pontoon boat trip this Saturday out of Port Canaveral on how to identify right whales and help monitor the endangered species' migration:
• 9:30 a.m. arrival time, with a 10 a.m. departure Saturday Feb. 25. Call 321-652-1052 for details.
Seen a whale?
To report sightings of dead, injured, or entangled whales, please contact NOAA Fisheries at 1-877-WHALE-HELP or 1-877-433-8299. You can also identify and help marine mammals in trouble simply by using your smartphone. Visit http://1.usa.gov/1b1kqfv to learn more.