Hurricane Matthew: 20 miles made all the difference

Had the path of Hurricane Matthew passed 20 miles closer to the Space Coast shore, the devastation could have been immense.

Fred Johnson, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, said the center of the hurricane was more than 40 miles offshore when it passed east of Brevard County as a Category 3 storm, with sustained winds of 120 mph. There was damage, but nothing like it would have been if the storm was 20 miles closer to the coast, Johnson said.

"Twenty miles to the west, Brevard County from U.S. 1 to the coast would have been in a high-impact area," Johnson said.

Projecting hurricane paths is a science, but not an exact one. In fact, Johnson said, as it approached and passed east of Florida, Matthew "was a well-behaved storm for the meteorological community." In other words, the path deviated by a relatively small amount.

"In my world, it was a very predictable storm," Johnson said.

It's just that the 20-mile distance farther from shore made a big difference, according to Brevard County Manager Stockton Whitten.

"We're fortunate that it took that little zig or zag," Whitten said. "We're blessed that it took that little veer to the right. All things considered, we're very happy with our preparations and the outcome."

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Similarly, if the storm's path was an additional 20 miles to the east than its actual path, Brevard County would have experienced even less storm damage that it did.

Johnson said hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph extended 30 to 50 miles west of the center of Matthew while passing East-Central Florida. Tropical-storm-force winds of at least 39 mph extended 80 to 120 west of the center..

"Every storm has got to find its path," Johnson said. "To me, the path, the track and the models were very consistent throughout the event."

Contact Berman at 321-242-3649 or dberman@floridatoday. com, on Twitter at @bydaveberman and on Facebook at www.facebook.com/dave.berman.54