NEWS

Matthew to bring storm surge, beach erosion

Chris Bonanno
FLORIDA TODAY

Hurricane Matthew poses threats in a number of ways to Brevard County with high winds and heavy rains a near-certainty.

But the biggest threat Matthew poses may be storm surge.

Storm surge, according to the National Hurricane Center, is water pushed toward the shore by force of winds moving around a storm. How high the surge is depends on intensity, speed of the storm, size, angle, barometric pressure and size of the storm.,

A storm surge is also more potent when it coincides with high tide.

How much storm surge the Space Coast receives in this case as Hurricane Matthew approaches is wildly variable depending upon how close the center gets to Brevard, experts say.

Hurricane warnings in effect for Florida coast

Will Ulrich, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne assessed the situation as of Tuesday afternoon, when the storm was projected to pass about 50-100 miles east of the Brevard coastline.

“There will be an associated storm surge as it parallels the coast,” Ulrich said. “Right now, the best guess is for areas of one to three feet inundation above ground level with some areas experiencing more than three feet.”

Will Ulrich and Jessie Smith, meteorologists from the National Weather Service in Melbourne, analyze Hurricane Matthew at the National Weather Service forecast office in Melbourne on Tuesday afternoon.

But there could be a big swing in the surge along the coast should the storm’s center make landfall in Brevard.

“I would imagine we can get waves, certainly 10 foot waves,” said George Maul, professor of ocean engineering and sciences at Florida Tech. “Out at sea, the waves could be larger than that, 30 foot waves easily.”

Beyond the storm surge, severe beach erosion is possible at area beaches along with dangerous rip currents.

“The large wave activity that we expect out ahead of Matthew as Matthew passes by. Imagine surf 12, 15, 18 feet approaching the coastline,” Ulrich said. “That’s going to really increase the threat from beach erosion and rip current activity. Obviously, nobody should be in the water in this situation but we really have to start worrying about beach erosion and the potential for some coastal flooding as well.”

“It’s usually the short period waves that chew up the beach,” Maul added. “The long period waves tend to build up the beach so if the storm stays well offshore, we may get those nice 12-second, 10-second swells that the kids love to surf on and that will tend to bring sand on to the beach and if the storm gets closer and we get those 5-6 second waves, it’ll chew up the beach and we’ll lose sand so it depends on where the storm goes.”

Contact Bonanno at 321-242-3662, cbonanno@floridatoday.com or follow Chris on Twitter @FTChrisBonanno