Orlando mass shooting could impact Florida tourism

One of the world's top tourism destinations is likely to face at least a temporary drop in visitors in the wake of Sunday's mass shooting at an Orlando nightclub, industry experts predict.

Abraham Pizam, dean of the Rosen College of Hospitality Management at the University of Central Florida in Orlando, said he expects there will be a short-term negative impact on tourism to Florida in general and the Orlando area in particular.

Adding to concerns: one of the world's most family-friendly vacation spots became the scene of every parent's worst nightmare Tuesday, when an alligator snatched a 2-year-old boy as he played in the water at the Seven Seas Lagoon at a Walt Disney World resort in Orlando. The boy's body was recovered Wednesday.

The Orlando area is home to not only to Disney, but also massive theme parks operated by SeaWorld and Universal. The neighboring Brevard County/Space Coast region is home to Cocoa Beach, the Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex and Port Canaveral, one of the world's most popular cruise ports.

In all, Florida attracted a record 105 million visitors last year, according to Visit Florida, the state's tourism marketing corporation. Of the 2015 visitors, 89.8 million come to Florida from within the United States, 4.0 million from Canada and 11.2 million from other countries.

[More: Body of toddler found after Florida alligator attack]

[More: Orlando gunman's wife feared he was plotting attack]

Pizam said the potential impact on tourism might not be seen for a few weeks. Why? People who already had plane and hotel reservations for this week would not be likely to cancel so close to their vacation.

Domestic travel to Florida might be affected less than certain segments of international travel, because there may be more of a sympathy among U.S. residents to the situation in Orlando — and more of push to support the area, Pizam said. That also may be true for European tourists, whose continent also has experienced terrorism directed at tourist areas.

The gator attack, while tragic, may be viewed as a "horrible freak accident" like a shark attack in the ocean or a child getting into a gorilla exhibit at a zoo, said Barbara Schenck, president and chief executive officer of Cocoa Beach-based FunDay Tours. She said it will act as an "awareness piece," educating the public about the potential dangers of getting too close to a gator.

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FunDay’s gator-focused tour excursions are its most popular. She said it’s not likely to have a long-term impact on tourism to Disney World, since Disney officials “will do everything they can to be sure it doesn’t happen again on their property.”

Eric Garvey, executive director of the Space Coast Office of Tourism, said he is closely monitoring developments in the investigation of the Pulse nightclub shootings. Much will depend on whether the investigation finds that gunman Omar Mateen was completely acting on his own or "if it was part of a directed attack from a terrorist organization," he said.

"What we've seen in the past is that fear will cause people not to travel," Garvey said. "If there is fear of an imminent incident, they will cancel their plans. They will say: 'I will just stay home this summer.' "

East of Orlando, Cocoa Beach attracts roughly 2.5 million tourists, surfers and day-trippers a year to its sandy, 6-mile oceanfront and attractions like Ron Jon Surf Shop. The barrier-island community touts itself as having Orlando's closest beaches.

Mayor Tim Tumulty met Monday morning with his city manager, police chief and fire chief to discuss Cocoa Beach’s planning for large-scale emergencies, such as a hurricane or mass shooting. He said the Pulse massacre could have occurred anywhere in America.

“It did happen close to us. It’s 60 miles away, an hour’s drive from where we live. But many folks have said, and I agree with this 100 percent: You plug in the name ‘Orlando,' and it could be any city in the country,”  Tumulty said, who is a Republican candidate in the Florida House District 51 race.

Garvey said there is a perception among many travelers that the major theme park attractions and the cruise lines have strong security in place, in contrast with so-called "soft targets" like cafes, movie theaters and nightclubs.

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Pizam agreed that the cruise industry — which has avoided terrorist incidents in recent years — may be somewhat more immune to fallout from any potential drop in tourism, and that the theme parks are viewed as "safer than smaller enterprises."

But, he added, "people will be very careful in terms of mom-and-pop attractions or clubs," where there may be less security.

"We live in a different world," Pizam said.

Contact Berman at 321-242-3649 or dberman@floridatoday.com. Follow him on Twitter @ByDaveBerman and on Facebook at facebook.com/dave.berman.54