$40 billion of national parks at risk from sea rise

Sea-level rise puts at high risk more than $40 billion in park infrastructure and historic and cultural resources, including almost $90 million in assets at the Canaveral National Seashore, according to a federal report released today.

The report by scientists from the National Park Service and Western Carolina University is based on a study of 40 parks, including Canaveral National Seashore.

Sea-level rise threatens structures and other resources at Canaveral that have a replacement value of $88.4 million, according to the report. The park's 167 listed assets in the report all are considered at high risk of damage from sea-level rise because of the overall low elevation of the park and extreme vulnerability to tropical storms.

Assets at risk at Canaveral include the $1 million headquarters, parking lots, and maintenance and administrative buildings.

"Climate change is visible at national parks across the country, but this report underscores the economic importance of cutting carbon pollution and making public lands more resilient to its dangerous impacts," U.S. Secretary of the Interior Secretary Sally Jewell, said in a release. "Through sound science and collaboration, we will use this research to help protect some of America's most iconic places — from the Statue of Liberty to Golden Gate and from the Redwoods to Cape Hatteras — that are at risk from climate change."

The report examined LiDAR data flown in 2007. LiDAR is akin to radar, measuring elevations with a laser and analyzing the reflected light.

Secretary Jewell released the report in advance of the two-year anniversary of President Barack Obama's Climate Action plan.

Sea-level rise projects vary by place and time, but scientists expect a one-meter rise in the next 100-150 years. In some areas of Alaska, however, relative sea-level is decreasing because as land-based glaciers and ice sheets melt, land is rising faster than sea-levels, according to the report.

"Many coastal parks already deal with threats from sea-level rise and from storms that damage roads, bridges, docks, water systems and parking lots," said National Park Service Director Jonathan B. Jarvis. "This infrastructure is essential to day-to-day park operations, but the historical and cultural resources such as lighthouses, fortifications and archaeological sites that visitors come to see are also at risk of damage or loss."

Authors of Adapting to Climate Change in Coastal Parks: Estimating the Exposure of Park Assets to 1 m of Sea-Level Rise, examined 40 of the 118 national parks considered at risk from sea-level rise. They used data from U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index.

Recent assessments by NASA found that sea level at the Kennedy Space Center — just south of Canaveral National Seashore — could rise from 6 to 25 inches by the 2050s and 10 to 49 inches by the 2080s.

The parks service study also included urban areas such as Gateway National Recreation Area in New York City and Golden Gate National Recreation Area in San Francisco, two of the most visited parks in the country.

Results from analysis of an additional 30 coastal parks will be released later this summer.

Called "assets," the infrastructure and historic sites, museum collections and other cultural resources of the 40 parks were categorized as at high- or limited- exposure based on exposure to risk of damage from one meter of sea level rise.

About 40 percent of assets in the 40 parks, valued at more than $40 billion, are in the high-exposure category. Low-lying barrier island parks in the parks service's Southeast Region, such as Canaveral National Seashore, account for the majority of the high-exposure assets.

At Cape Hatteras National Seashore in North Carolina, for example, the cost to rebuild lighthouses, visitor center exhibits, historic structures and other areas would be almost $1.2 billion, the report says. That does not include the potential billions for loss of lands and tourism.

More than one-third of assets in the parks service's Northeast Region are in the high-exposure category, including the Statue of Liberty in New York and the landmark structures at Boston National Historic Park and Fort McHenry in Baltimore.

Many national park areas in the Northeast already were damaged by Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The storm shuttered the Statue of Liberty for eight months and forced National Park Service to remove much of the Ellis Island museum collection after the heating, ventilation and air conditioning system flooded with sea water.

Although one meter of sea level rise may not seem like a lot, Jarvis explained that amount would create a cascade of ill effects.

"Coupled with sea level rise, big storms have that extra volume of water that can damage or destroy roads, bridges and buildings, and we saw what that looks like – again – with Hurricane Sandy in 2012," the NPS director said.

Rebecca Beavers, NPS's lead scientist on coastal geology, said that considering Hurricane Sandy, the new report probably was too conservative with the assets it deemed "high exposure."

"Although reality may deal even more harsh circumstances as Sandy illustrated, information from this report provides a useful way to help determine priorities for planning within coastal parks," Beavers said.

The authors hope to bring attention to the need for "broader guidance related to climate change adaptation, not only at the park level, but also by the NPS regional and national levels," they wrote in the report.

Contact Waymer at 321-242-3663 or jwaymer@floridatoday.com Follow him on Twitter @JWayEnviro

Read the study here: http://go.nps.gov/coastalassets